THE Standard Chartered (SC) report 'India in the Super-Cycle' has drawn attention to the fact that the country is likely to emerge as the world's third-largest economy by 2030 and grow faster, on an average, than China over the next two decades.
Nonetheless, the report clarifies that growth could be hampered by other factors such as regulatory burdens, infrastructure bottlenecks; high oil prices and slowdown in foreign direct investment.
Mr Gerard Lyons, Chief Economist and Group Head, Global Research, Standard Chartered Bank, affirmed that it had factored in a growth rate of 6.9 per cent for China, allowing for setbacks along the way, and 9.3 per cent for India, again taking into account the business cycle.
The report states that the world may be experiencing its third 'super-cycle', which is defined as a period of historically high global growth, lasting a generation or more, driven by increasing trade, high rates of investment, urbanisation and technological innovation, characterised by the emergence of large, new economies, first seen in high catch-up growth rates across the emerging world.
The third super-cycle, according to the report, is led by India and China and other emerging economies, thereby shifting the balance of economic and financial power from the West to the East. "The winners of the super-cycle would be those countries which have abundance of cash or commodities," the report adds.
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